When to Hold or Hit at 17 in Blackjack: Optimizing Your Strategy

Deciding whether to hold or hit at 17 in blackjack can be a challenge, and there are several factors to consider. This article will delve into the nuances of this decision and provide a comprehensive guide to optimizing your strategy.

The Basics: Soft and Hard 17

In blackjack, whether you should hold or hit at 17 depends largely on the type of 17 you have—soft or hard—and the dealer's up card. This decision is influenced by the basic strategy chart, which is based on mathematical probabilities and can significantly improve your chances of winning.

Hard 17

A hard 17 is a hand that does not include an ace that can be counted as either 1 or 11. It is generally advisable to stand on a hard 17. This is because a hard 17 contains more cards that could cause you to go over 21 (or bust) than there are cards that would improve your hand. For example, if you have a 10-7, hitting on this hand would result in a bust if you draw another 10 or higher.

Soft 17

A soft 17 is a hand that includes an ace, which can be counted as either 1 or 11. In many scenarios, it is recommended to hit on a soft 17. This is because a soft 17 is a weak hand that can be improved without the risk of busting, as the ace can be played as a 1. Some strategies and house rules even suggest doubling down on a soft 17 if the dealer's up card is particularly weak, such as a 3 through 6.

The Role of the Dealer’s Up Card

The dealer's up card significantly influences the decision to hit or stand. If the dealer has a strong up card like a 9, 10, or an Ace, it might be wise to take more risks if you have a soft 17. Conversely, if the dealer has a weaker up card like a 2 or a 3, you are more likely to improve upon a hard 17 by hitting or, in some cases, doubling down.

Specific Dealer Up Card Scenarios

Doubling Down with Soft 17: In many cases, it is advised to hit on a soft 17. However, there are exceptions. For instance, if the dealer is showing a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you should double down with a soft 17. If doubling down is not allowed, you should hit against any other dealer upcard except for 3-6. One-Deck Blackjack: In a one-deck game, if doubling down is allowed, you can double down with a soft 17 against a dealer showing a 2 as well. Soft 17 Versus Hard 17: If you hit and draw a card that pushes you past 21, it's likely that the dealer’s hand will also go over 21. However, if the dealer is showing a weak card, hitting might give you a better chance to win.

Expected Returns and Strategy

The expected returns for standing and hitting versus any dealer upcard are as follows, assuming normal rules and no card counting:

Hard 17: Standing on a hard 17 has a much smaller negative expectation versus 2-7 and a significantly smaller expectation versus 8-A. However, standing on a hard 17 results in a loss of about half of your initial bet, which gives you a negative expectation of about -5 if you're playing 10/hand. Soft 17: Hitting on a soft 17 has a higher risk of busting but can potentially result in a better hand if the dealer has a weak up card. Doubling down on a soft 17 against a dealer showing 3-6 maximizes your potential gains.

By understanding the nuances of the game and following a basic strategy chart, you can make more informed decisions and optimize your play to maximize your chances of winning in blackjack.